The problem is that one man's filler is another's hot pick. I'm worried that in scaling back, festivals will first slash the films they feel are less likely to be crowd-pleasers.

That crossed my mind, too. Or that festival politics will dictate the first wave of what's to be shown, so that there will be less slots for said cream to rise. Still, I'm a firm believer in the power of streamlining, and there's certainly plenty of fat to trim at some of the bigger fests.

Same thing that always happens at film festivals is going to continue to happen:

Festivals will offer the public the courtesy of submitting their works. In the meantime, the filmmakers with connections will receive preferential treatment.

Nobody appears out of nowhere.

That is all.

I don't know about "nobody appears out of nowhere." I've met plenty of humble, first-time, socially unconnected filmmakers who prove (near-) clueless to the way festivals work, who makes the decisions, what to do after being accepted, and ask in the immortal words of David Byrne, "How did I get here?" Yes, preferential treatment happens, but it's certainly not the final word.

What filmmakers are these? Anybody I've ever heard of?...

I really should turn off this impersonal anonymous posting. (Is this JS?)

Sure, there are inexperienced first-timers you've absolutely heard of by now, at least because they've played at major fests. But I'm not naming names here. I'm only saying that plenty of newbies make it that far without cronyism, nepotism, whatever -isms you've got. Sometimes a good film is just a good film in a programmer's eyes, but the question is, now that everyone's slimming down, how much room will there be for those after Brian's crowd pleasers and your preferential-treatment cases? My glass-half-full brain thinks bad economic times could potentially weed out some junk, but I guess we'll all wait and see.

I'll go by Gigliozzi instead of "anon."

I'm not talking about cronyism or nepotism. I'm just talking about contacts. Everybody has to know somebody. Even the '90s indie breakouts -- they all had their share of contacts and people who were helping support them.

Marketers like to promote filmmakers as unknown breakouts, but in reality, everybody knows somebody. Somebody who at least knows somebody else and can put in a good word. You don't get jobs without references. You know?...

some filmmakers go to the extent of sleeping with festival programmers to ensure their firm footing on the international circuit...

Sundance was dancy, and many of its offerings were mildly of interest. The vibe was low, as were the crowds, but it still was the thing to do and the place to be.
Some occurences, like the emergence of art, are disserved by dissection and clinical analysis. If 25 awesome films would have been on the screens at Sundance, who have remembered how many people were there or how slow it was getting deals done?

I've heard that many festivals pre-approve a majority of the features before opening submissions to the public. Does anyone have any links to articles or discussion boards that cover this topic? I'd also be interested in hearing more about the nature of selection committees. Who are these people and what are their qualifications? How many times does a film get screened during the selection process? I realize that every festival is different, but it is an important topic, to understand who the filters are.

Here is an interesting anecdote from 2001 that may be of interest, Frank.

Damn. That's such a buzz killer. I just finished helping out on a feature and it's not getting accepted at festivals. I think it's a million times better than the mumblesnore stuff that's out, but what can you do... Once I heard a story by Matt Dentler who described in a panel discussion how he selected 'dance party usa' (which may be a good movie, I haven't seen it) for sxsw. He said he was browsing through titles of dvd's and when he saw this title he knew he had to watch it. I was wondering if that was a slip. Does that imply something? Maybe it just means that other programmers watch the others, but anyway, it was troublesome, his manner of speaking of the entire affair. Whatever, I sound bitter. Sorry.