Politics and Oscars.

When the end-of-the-year floodgates are opened and the assessments and lists start pouring in, we will hear again and again that, in a year which has seen Americans more sharply, more aggressively divided since at least 1968, two films, both made outside the Hollywood system, came to be emblematic of either side. For the right, still galvanized by 9/11, a gruesome, blood-drenched restaging of the persecution of Jesus was a near-perfect metaphor: the greater our suffering, the more we can be sure we have been divinely appointed to rise again. "Near-perfect," because, in place of radical Islamists as villains, Mel Gibson presented corrupt Jews. Even conservatives squirmed. Even so, the potency of The Passion of the Christ lies in the simplicity of its narrative - for many, after all, it is The Greatest Story Ever Told. Retooling that narrative hasn't been merely politically expedient for the Bush administration; it's been extraordinarily effective because, as Ron Suskind explains in his harrowing piece in the New York Times Magazine, the president himself sincerely believes he sitteth at the Right Hand.

For the left, of course, an exceedingly secular, back-down-to-earth, fact- and issue-crowded polemic was the movie of the year. The strength of Fahrenheit 9/11 is that it picked up where Howard Dean left off, tapping into the anger out there that other Democratic frontrunners and the two eventual nominees seemed almost fearful to officially recognize for far too long. The frustrating weakness of both Michael Moore's film and John Kerry's campaign is that both men have been blessed - no, cursed - with too many solid arguments for voting Bush out of office on November 2. You can walk out of a screening of Fahrenheit 9/11 emotionally stirred, but try telling a friend what it's about, or more importantly, what happens.

The two films have been set next to each other before, but in the current issue of Newsweek, Sean Smith picks up another angle: What are the Oscar prospects for each? That's a very different contest than the box office and DVD sales have been. Because, as we all know, Hollywood ain't Kansas. Two telling quotes from Smith's piece:

"I'll tell you why The Passion won't be nominated," snaps one industry executive. "Happily, there are too many people in the Academy who believe the Holocaust actually happened."

[...]

"If John Kerry wins, Fahrenheit gets nominated," says one exec. "Then it becomes 'the movie that changed the course of American history,' and the perception will be that Moore contributed to Bush's loss." Or not. "Its chances are zero if Kerry wins, because then the protest is over and everybody feels better," says another source. And, says one Academy member, "If Kerry loses, it gets nominated as a big 'f-- you' to Bush."

Posted by dwhudson at October 17, 2004 8:35 AM